Vol. 23, No. 12 March 27-31, 2023Big-city exodus slows; construction drags down GDP but study suggests impact may be overstated   Big-city population losses moderate  “Big cities lost fewer residents last year as more immigrants moved in, fewer people died and more babies were born there, according to new census data [on population by county] that shows the urban exodus that gained steam early in the pandemic is cooling,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday… Read more Dodge construction starts  Real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.6% from the third quarter (Q3) to Q4 of 2022, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. A decline in real construction activity meant the construction industry reduced GDP by 0.14 percentage points… Read more Fed research suggests construction investment is understated  The decline in real construction reported above conflicts with Census Bureau data on increasing construction spending and Bureau of Labor Statistics data on rising construction employment, as shown in this AGC PowerPoint. “Nonresidential construction spending is likely not as weak as it seems” is the title of a paper posted by Federal Reserve researchers Eirik Brandsaas, Daniel Garcia, Joseph Nichols, and Kyra Sadovi on March 24… Read more Bleak signs for office constructionThe outlook for office construction appears bleak. “Defaults and vacancies are on the rise at high-end office buildings, in the latest sign that remote work and rising interest rates are spreading pain to more corners of the commercial real-estate market,” the Journal reported on Wednesday. “The amount of U.S. class-A office space in central business districts that is leased fell in [Q4] for the first time since 2021, according to Moody’s Analytics… Read more